There are differences between Giuliani and Trump. “Rudy didn’t even care enough about conservatives to lie to us,” one Republican consultant reflected afterwards.ĭonald Trump also happens to be a thrice-married, formerly pro-choice, kind of rude person from New York. When voters started to pay attention, as Iowa neared, they discovered that Giuliani was a thrice-married, formerly pro-choice, kind of rude person from New York. Over the course of the campaign, voters got to know the others.” “The other candidates were not that well known. “Giuliani was better known than the others, except for McCain,” David Karol, a professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland and co-author of the book The Party Decides, told the Guardian. He was just ahead in the polls in a race most people were mostly ignoring. But the real explanation, many analysts think, is that Giuliani’s lead was a phantom lead.
What happened to Giuliani? He is said to have made tactical errors such as bad hires and ad buys. He ultimately focused all his efforts in Florida, where he came in third. And yet Giuliani ended up winning not a single primary or caucus. Trump is having trouble cracking 25%, while for months at a stretch in 2007, Giuliani swanned around in the 30s. Next to Giuliani’s lead, Trump’s lead looks like … a joke. It’s a dramatic performance, one the candidate himself is clearly exhilarated by.Įxcept when you overlay it with, for example, the arc of the early frontrunner in the 2008 Republican nominating race, Rudy Giuliani: But there are also instructive examples – as well as exceptions.įor nearly six weeks, in survey after survey, Trump has soared above the rest of the field by a double-digit margin. (We have 444 days to go.) There are charts that illustrate this. Especially polling more than 300 days out. Polls this far out don’t mean muchĮarly polling is not very predictive. After all, high political office is cluttered with people who weren’t supposed to be able to win.īut the smart money is stacked against Trump – stacked as tall as one of his awesome towers. “If Trump is nominated, then everything we think we know about presidential nominations is wrong,” Larry Sabato, head of the center for politics at the University of Virginia, wrote last week.Įven political analysts who are highly convinced that Trump cannot win hesitate to state outright: “Trump cannot win”. They include the quants and geeks, some Republican consultants and operatives, and lots of political scientists.Ī trio of political data experts empanelled by FiveThirtyEight for a podcast earlier this month estimated Trump’s chances of snagging the nomination at 2%, 0% and minus-10%, respectively. They include some journalists, some former Republican consultants and operatives, talk show host Bill Maher and a contestant from season three of NBC’s The Apprentice, who now is co-chairperson of Trump’s Iowa operation.īut more-knowledgable people think he won’t.
“I would like to have the election tomorrow – I don’t want to wait.”īut can Donald Trump really win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination? “We could make a call for an expedited election,” Trump told those at the rally. A rally for the candidate in Mobile, Alabama, on Friday night had to be moved to a larger stadium to accommodate a horde of thousands – although the estimated crowd of 20,000 fell short of the 40,000 the Trump campaign said had RSVP’d. Most polls have him leading in the double digits.
Trump hasn’t been out of first place in national polling since he filed as a candidate with the Federal Election Commission in mid-July.
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